DCSpectator

POS/Hart Survey Underscores Potency of Attacking Lawmaker Votes to Cut Medicare

February 8th, 2012

As the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives begin making crucial budgetary decisions for FY 2013, a recent survey conducted for the Alliance for Quality Nursing Home Care by Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates underscores the saliency political operatives find in attacking incumbents who expose themselves to such attacks by supporting Medicare cuts — in this case to nursing homes.

The survey (January 26-30, 800 RV’s [700 landline/100 cell] +/- 3.46%) finds 82% of RV’s oppose reducing Medicare funding for seniors’ nursing home care; 90% say funding for U.S. nursing home care should either “remain the same” or “increase”; and, interestingly, a full 69% support the concept of phasing-in a controversial 2011 Obama Medicare regulation that reduced Medicare funding by 11.1% all at one time.

With Republicans and Democrats both suffering major losses in back to back congressional elections — as each side in successive cycles absorbed attacks ads accusing incumbents for cutting seniors’ Medicare benefits — it’s no surprise both sides are circling each other warily as the FY 2013 budget negotiations take shape.

Private polling done for a health care provider group in Texas last year, as well as polling conducted for the Texas Tribune, found cuts to seniors’ nursing home care are among the most unpopular cuts of nearly a dozen options mentioned. This is not lost on ad makers, pollsters, campaign operatives and lawmakers themselves.

Gingrich the DC “Outsider”

January 23rd, 2012

As the Florida GOP race moves to Florida and a new Rasmussen survey finds Gingrich with 41%, Romney with 32% and Santorum at 11%, the Romney campaign is wrestling with the fact Newt has completely turned the tables and is now the insurgent ‘outsider’ who will bring change to Washington.

Of course, this is preposterous. Gingrich can’t change Washington, because he is Washington.

This is a dangerous time for Romney, and the fact Gingrich has flipped the insider vs. outsider dynamic on its head with relative ease, and through sheer force of personality and intellect, will require Romney to flip the insider-outsider table back over. What a brawl.

Romney Polling Spike In South Carolina Breaks Glass Ceiling

January 6th, 2012

The rap on Mitt Romney in both national surveys and states beyond just his home geo base in NH is that he cannot poke through approximately 25% in this large multi-candidate.

While just one survey, the new CNN/Time/ORC South Carolina poll puts Romney at 37% followed by Santorum at 18%.

Psychologically, if anything, this data portends good news as the sheer weight of the NH, SC, FL gauntlet bares down on the shrinking GOP field.

While NH is where Romney needs to meet his expectations, and where the focus on the deluge of polls are at the moment, this new little polling tidbit from South Carolina is as revealing as it is likely prescient of where things could be in just several weeks: over and done with.

Wyden Says Dem Outrage Over Teaming With Ryan on Medicare Will Subside

December 15th, 2011

Senate Democrats on Capitol Hill were more than miffed at Sen. Ron Wyden’s (D-OR) decision to join Republican Paul Ryan on a new Medicare reform plan. But Wyden says the negative criticism will subside once the plan is actually reviewed.

But that’s not likely in this hyper-partisan environment — and especially because it dilutes the attacks the DCCC and DSCC hoped to use (and will still use) against GOP candidates who had expressed previous support for the first Ryan plan earlier this year.

wyden1“There’s no question that when you try to break the gridlock and in this case for the longest running battle since the Trojan War, you stir a lot of passions,” Wyden told POLITICO. “My hope is in the days ahead that folks are going to read it.”

Not likely. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi suggested that the Wyden-Ryan plan would allow Medicare to “wither on the vine,” and White House spokesman Jay Carney said it was just another plan to “end Medicare.”


The DC Herd Jumps on “Newt Has Peaked” Bandwagon

December 15th, 2011

One benefit of my office setup — some say a liability that perpetuates a narrow Beltway perspective — is that i watch MSNBC, Fox News, CNN and CNBC throughout the course of the business day.

One benefit is sensing shift in narratives and storylines — much like ‘watching the tape’ as they use to say on Wall Street, when intuitive brokers could sense a broader market move just by watching the action in real time.

Today marked a clear turning point in Newt Gingrich’s fortunes if one goes by the metric of cable spin. All day long, Newt’s Intrade collapse and several IA tracking polls have prompted a rush by the DC class to proclaim he has peaked.

While I personally believe this to be true based simply on my own intuition, the one reality is this: Newt is being hammered with a barrage of tough advertising from Ron Paul and the Romney Super Pac, and has decided to let the negative ads go unanswered.

Bottom line: this is a fatal strategy, and Gingrich may now lose Iowa to Paul or perhaps even Romney. Newt must win Iowa to meet expectations — but that is now very much in doubt.

Remembering 9/11 Part2

September 11th, 2011

Walking back to Georgetown from Memorial Bridge, where I stood for at least an hour in silence watching the smoldering Pentagon, the first thing one could notice was that even M Street and Wisconsin Avenue had pretty much cleared out, as most, presumably, stayed inside to watch the ongoing news coverage.

While internet access was working well, land lines and cell service were jammed and inoperable throughout the day. Bill Kenyon, a political consultant friend from Texas, was in town, and wanted to have an early dinner. While not thinking much about eating, we agreed to meet at Nathan’s — at Wisconsin and M. Besides spacing out reflectively, and sitting quietly in my office the rest of the afternoon watching news, I don’t recall what I did until dinner.

But as soon as i walked down 31st Street for the two block walk to Nathan’s, i saw something I’d never seen except in movies: armored personnel carriers cruising around Georgetown. Vehicle checkpoints were being set up.

The dinner crowd at Nathans was unusually animated for the situation at hand, but then again, the gravity of the event was still sinking in. I ordered a filet and a bottle of Penfolds 389 Australian cabernet, and a strolling photographer walked by the table; one of those guys hoping you’ll spring for a cheesy photo with your date. Kenyon suggested getting a picture for historical purposes, and have saved it ever since.

Having just pulled that picture out to look at once again — now ten years gone by — the significance and raw emotion of that day has returned with a vengeance as I watch the 9/11 Ceremony in NYC, and the reading of the names from family members along with pictures of those who perished. God bless.

Later that night, unusual lights and what appeared to be aircraft were all over the skies above Washington. But there was no noise as these lights hovered about the city. These lights have been reported, but do not believe there was ever any official explanation. Watching the news into the early morning, and as world reaction set in, it was clear things would never again be the same.

Remembering 9/11

September 10th, 2011

Like millions of Americans, i was already at work that fateful morning. It was a sunny, beautiful day in Georgetown, and had just enjoyed a dark roast coffee on my porch overlooking the serene courtyard. It was just like any other day. Seated back at my desk right before 9am eastern time, i was, per usual, watching my three cable TV monitors when the first report came in about the first plane.

Looking at the live NBC video, and the initial speculation that a ’small plane’ had hit the first tower, my first reaction was that the large indentation on the building was much larger than a small commercial aircraft. A commercial aviation buff, i noticed the wingspan of the aircraft was at least half the size of the building width. Small aircraft? Something did not seem right.

The NBC feed resumed regular programming — but then when the second plane hit minutes later, it was full tilt bedlam on the cable news stations, and i sat riveted in my chair watching history unfold for the next hour.

Just a while later, an unusual, ominous thud echoed up the Potomac and i walked outside on my porch to see what was up.

Five minutes later, dark smoke from the National Airport area — down river from Georgetown — filled the sky, just as it was now being reported a plane had hit the Pentagon. I began receiving calls from loved ones asking if I was OK, and began making some of my own calls to the NYC area, which were unable to be completed.

I left my office to walk down to the M Street Starbucks and the fear in people’s faces was palpable. I, too, was becoming uneasy as fighter jets were screaming overhead, and the sounds of helicopters permeated the normally serene morning air.

Back at my office, I watched the towers fall — one of which I’d just visited a month or two ago to have a drink at Windows of the World. I thought of that large elevator I’d gone up on to get to the top of the tower, and the horror that must have ensued as building tenants attempted to flea the building. My emotions got the better of me, and had to lay down on my office couch as i was feeling weak and faint.

By about noon, the time I usually go running, I decided to head  down to the Memorial Bridge for a clear look down the river towards the Pentagon. When I arrived, traffic had stopped, people were out of their cars, and a small crowd — in stark silence — stood on the south side of the bridge as smoke billowed up the river from the blast area.

I joined the crowd, climbed up on the massive stonework to get a better view, and stared down river. No one talked, no one said a thing. There was nothing to say. Everyone, by then, knew thousands of their countrymen had been killed. We were all there, standing on Memorial Bridge, frozen in time and frozen in thought as the acrid smoke from the burning Pentagon dissipated into the 9/11 morning sunshine.

Tim Pawlenty’s “Manchester Meltdown”?

June 14th, 2011

I was greeted this morning by a crescendo of email alerts and tweets declaring that Mitt Romney and Michelle Bachmann “won” the CNN GOP presdiential primary debate in Manchester, NH — and that’s essentially correct.

It’s also true that Tim Pawlenty was the consensus loser in the media beauty pageant for not backing up his “Obamneycare” attack on Romney; he looked weak, tentative and indecisive. A National Journal header on an email alert even declared this “Pawlenty’s Manchester Meltdown”. That’s a bit of an overstatement: Pawlenty scored with several good answers, one of which related to Right to Work issues prevalent in the state media discussion. While not an auspicious welcome to the national debate circuit, he has time to recover.

But this all goes to show how quickly the narrative turns: three weeks ago, Mitt Romney was ‘faltering’; a ‘weak’ front-runner in an even weaker field. As a disclaimer, I support Romney, but even the most objective observer will agree that he was poised, on-message with jobs/econ, credible, and looked the part of potential President. His debate performance was a visual validation of the Wash Post/ABC News poll finding him with a 49-46 lead over Obama. The bottom line: Romney is gaining stature — and that is the type of coveted commodity earned over time.

So Tim Pawlenty has dug himself into a temporary hole with an error of both style and substance: he was weak, and let Romney off the hook. But there’s a long road ahead, and this bump in the road will, if they’re as good as they think they are, end up helping him and his staff. The one general truism in campaigns, which are subject to such rapid, volatile swings: things are never as bad as they first appear, and things are never as great as they first appear.

RSS vs. Twitter? — Or Maintaining Both

January 23rd, 2011

Paris, VA — As someone whose livelihood depends on aggregating dozens and dozens of news sources, opinion outlets and every variety of information related to politics, the media and health care, I depend upon my RSS feed. And as more than 50% of my consulting work product depends upon writing, i use a four monitor setup to facilitate incorporating various speech, oped and news release drafts into new finals, and essentially using three of the monitors as a palette for words and writing. The words are thus the art. But the fourth monitor is solely for email and RSS.

But since adopting Twitter about six months ago, I have increasingly been shifting RSS feeds to Twitter, and attempting to rationalize how the Twitter stream and RSS feed differentiate, and how they should be different — or whether they even should be different.  First, I thought I’d keep Twitter more focused upon personal interests such as music, wine, sports and the like — and keep RSS for “hard news”. Yet, now my Twitter stream has evolved to include many of the outlets previously confined to my hard news RSS feed.

As the bottom line for me is maximizing the efficiency of news and information consumption, I’m considering dumping RSS altogether. The downside is that I despise returning to my office after being out for several hours and having nearly 1000 new tweets to consume, which i believe will be the case if I dump RSS completely. And while using TweetDeck off an iPhone, I don’t want to always be a slave to reviewing the stream every several minutes. If that’s my biggest professional dilemma, I’m surely lucky in the big scheme of things, but it’s a growing issue for my business and info assimilation necessities.

The good thing? I have the choice to work this out as I see fit, and in a manner that best suits my business needs. The bottom line is that the technology is fascinating, and it’s perversely rewarding to figure out the most efficient means by which to consume an ever-increasing volume of information. I have no choice, because the significant competitive advantage my niche communications business holds over other larger firms depends upon it. Gordon Hensley

Ben Nelson Faces Enormous 2012 Odds in Presidential Election Cycle

January 7th, 2011

Alexandria, VA — As Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) already faces an extremely challenging re-election environment, it will be even more difficult for him in a presidential election cycle, when he will be running alongside Barack Obama. In an off-year re-elect, extremely vulnerable incumbents like Nelson have a better opportunity to define their record and their brand unencumbered by top-of-the-ticket linkages.

But 2012 will ensure the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and the aggressive third party groups who will again dominate the paid media landscape have an easy mark in tagging Nelson as a willing, leading partner of the “Obama team”. Is it fair? That will all get lost in the wash and the record itself will determine his survivability.

To be sure, the Nelson re-elect will be more complex than simplistic linkages, and can surely point to in-state successes and examples of breaking with Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. But regardless, the structural parameters already framing the race and the dialogue to follow will make this a decidedly uphill contest — especially as Nebraska is a relatively cheap paid media state, which allows even marginal third party groups to get on the air with blunt advertising messages.

It was also interesting to note key Nelson staff are already leaving: it was recently reported that Mike Hogan, his deputy chief of staff on Capitol Hill, with a strong health care policy background, is joining Ogilvy as a senior Vice-President. Gordon Hensley