In what Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post accurately characterized as a “mild surprise,” David Perdue’s win over U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston in the Georgia GOP Senate run-off will make it even harder for Democrat Michelle Nunn to win the seat — not easier. Why? Simple: Perdue is from Georgia and Kingston has a long record in Washington. Kingston was the choice of most GOP insiders as well as the Chamber of Commerce, but I never bought into the notion he was the stronger candidate.
While working for TN Senator Bob Corker in 2006 against Harold Ford, the target on Ford’s back, on so many fronts, allowed us to inevitably squeak out a win in that disastrous GOP cycle. The State vs. DC dynamic is so powerful — along with the application of strong opposition research — I’m convinced Ford would have defeated us if we had been a DC incumbent congressman.
Now, Nunn is robbed of using dozens of salient votes against Kingston: bank bailouts, debt increases, tax hikes; all the type of votes that add up to Congress owning the lowest favorability ratings on record. Perdue has vulnerabilities, and Kingston hit on many — but Michelle Nunn’s mission is now more difficult, not easier.
As for Nunn, she has run a strong campaign and obviously has a strong family brand — but she has had a free ride. After all is said and done, Perdue will win by a larger margin than is the current conventional wisdom.
Gordon Hensley