Charlie Cook is one of the very few election prognosticators in DC who matter, and when he writes or says something, its worth a look.
Making a hurricane-storm surge analogy, he explains today, courtesy of National Journal, the following:
“A hurricane does seem likely to hit the GOP this November. But the micro analysis shows that structural barriers in the House and Senate are protecting the Republican majorities like seawalls, and would likely withstand the surge from a Category 1, 2, or 3 storm. They probably couldn’t withstand a Category 4 or 5, though… In four out of five elections, the micro analysis proves accurate. But in about one out of five, it doesn’t. Will this year be one of those exceptions?”