Washington, DC – A new survey of 428 registered New Jersey voters who said their chances of voting in the November general election for Governor was “definite” or “very likely” finds Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Corzine holding a 44-39 lead over Republican Doug Forrester — a lead that expands to 45-38 among definite voters.
The survey was conducted 7/18-26 for DCSpectator.com by Neighborhood Research, in Franklin, N.J. The MoE is +/- 4.7%.
Corzine maintains a Fav/Unfav of 27-24 with 13 percent mixed, 31 percent no opinion and a name ID of 95 percent. Forrester has a 20-18 Fav/Unfav with 8 percent mixed and 46 percent having no opinion. Forrester’s overall name ID is 91 percent.
Overall, the survey finds Corzine holds strong leads with constituencies that lean to Democrats while Forrester is either behind or only slightly ahead among those constituencies Republicans need to win a majority in the state.
Corzine leads by 43-39 with homeowners, 45-40 with Catholics and 45-42 among Catholics who attend Mass weekly. He wins women by 49-30 while Forrester leads by 48-40 among men. Corzine is also strong with younger voters, winning 51-35 with those under age 35; 48-33 with those age 35-49; 45-41 with those age 50-64, and losing seniors 44-36.
Corzine leads with Irish voters 52-28, Irish Catholics by 60-21 and Irish Catholics who attend Mass weekly by 59-23. He wins non-Cuban Hispanics by 58-36, Jewish voters by 61-22, Scottish voters by 52-32 and Polish voters by 52-26. African-American voters are choosing Corzine by an 87-4 margin.
Forrester leads with Italians (44-38), Germans (49-37) and English voters (44-35). He is ahead 50-31 
with Italian Catholics and 53-33 with Italians who attend Mass at least once a week. He is ahead by 60-22 among white mainline Protestants but beats Corzine by only 56-30 among white evangelical Christians, 51 percent of whom consider themselves conservative.
Corzine leads 74-9 among liberals while Forrester is up 66-16 with conservatives. Bush favorables are supporting Forrester by 68-13 while Bush unfavorables are backing Corzine by 79-11.
DCSpectator, based in Georgetown, is published by Gordon Hensley. A Republican, Hensley also writes a column for the NY State news and politics website, EmpirePage.com. DCSpectator also plans to poll periodically on the 2006 New York Senate and Governor’s races, the 2006 Senate race in Pennsylvania between Santorum and Casey, and interesting races in states around the nation as they develop.