Washington, DC — While it’s not a full-throated cry, the DC rumor mill is rife with talk and speculation that, in the end, when it’s all said and done, Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison won’t run against incumbent Rick Perry in a GOP primary.
Albeit highly speculative that Kay will not run, there is an undeniable undercurrent in
town that’s very unfavorable to her initial political positioning against Perry, and a perception, fair or unfair, that her chances of defeating Perry in a barbaric, highly-charged, negative primary slugfest have diminished during the first quarter of 2005.
Her first problem is essentially structural from a party hierarchy standpoint. A sitting GOP Senator challenging a sitting GOP Governor for his job is a ballsy enterprise, and the onus is on Hutchison not just to present a rationale for her candidacy, but a rationale as to why Perry should not be re-elected.
This is no easy task, especially in the GOP where the tradition of waiting one’s turn upon the exit or defeat of an incumbent is almost an unwritten rule. While this possible GOP primary actually reflects the primacy of the GOP in Texas, it would not be unfair to speculate that many of Hutchison’s Dallas metro GOP base — longtime, establishment party stalwarts — don’t have the stomach for a nasty intra-party primary. It’s not their nature, nor, really, is it Kay’s. Yes, her primary for the right to take on Bob Krueger had its angry moments, but it was a necessity, not an option.
While Perry has suffered during his tenure in comparison to the looser, more likeable, more-comfortable-in-his-skin George W. Bush, a reasonable rationale for his ouster isn’t even close to being achieved by Kay Bailey.
From an ideological perspective, the chatter is that Senator Hutchison will have a major problem on abortion and probably taxes due to the fact that running against Washington-based incumbents opens a treasure trove of oppo research hits on procedural matters pertaining to budget votes. Perry, who has some possible vulnerabilities surrounding the state property tax, will have the most opportunities on the tax/budget issue — just by the sheer volume nature of what will be available in the CQ roll call vote tallies.
When asked about the local perception of Kay’s chances, one Austin Republican in state government — no real fan of either Rick or Kay — singled out abortion as Kay’s biggest problem. "Her abortion position is not well defined, malleable and exploitable, big time, and she’s in a precarious position — no question about it." Asked about the "Kay won’t run" rumor mill in Texas GOP circles, another Dallas-based GOP activist said it was on a "slow burn" but "it’s definitely out there."
Like it or not, spin wars are an integral part of the game. It’s only May, but it ain’t good that on Kay’s DC turf, she’s losing the perception game to Perry, as well as losing the initial sparring on the home field in Texas. Kay has been a good Senator and advocate for Texas, but if she hopes to knock of Perry, she needs to begin articulating the most basic campaign 101 necessity: a rationale for her candidacy and a rationale against the incumbent. There’s no sign of either.
Later This Week: A look at the Tennessee ’06 GOP Senate primary for Bill Frist’s open seat.